Indicative Yield
11.8%
Bid 11.1% · Ask 11.8%
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Market prices, positions, participants and transactions are simulated for demonstration purposes.
THEORI-ENG-US-TX-HW27
ERCOT Extreme Heat Demand Protection
Protection against extreme summer temperatures contributing to unusually high electricity demand across the ERCOT market.
EnergyTexasOpen
Implied Probability
17.4%
Historical frequency 14.2%
Total Notional
$58M
$16.5M available
Maturity
31 Aug 2027
1 June 2027 – 31 August 2027
Contract Definition
Objective terms governing observation and settlement.
Trigger
Dallas Fort Worth records a maximum temperature of at least 105°F on four consecutive calendar days.
Geographic Scope
Texas
Observation Period
1 June 2027 – 31 August 2027
Data Source
Independent United States weather and electricity-market observations
Indicative Market History
Illustrative yield and probability movements.
Historical pricing chart workstream pending
Settlement
Automatic cash settlement following verification of the qualifying temperature observations.
AI Risk Brief
Current pricing reflects elevated seasonal uncertainty
The current indicative premium is above the historical event frequency, reflecting recent forecast conditions, elevated energy-market sensitivity and constrained available capacity.