Market Risk Score
91/100
96th historical percentile
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AK
Investor demonstration environment — indicative market and portfolio data only.
Risk Intelligence
Risk Explorer
Compare external market pricing with your own exposures, hedge gaps and available risk-transfer capacity.
Selected Market
Compare wider market pricing with your organisation’s exposure.
Wider MarketAggregated indicative pricing and participant activity
Market Yield
10.4%
Probability
18.2%
Open Capacity
$11.5M
Participants
14
7-Day Move
+2.4 pts
Market Probability
18.2%
Model view 21.6%
Your Exposure
$18.5M
Organisation-specific gross exposure
Expected Loss
$2.9M
Current model estimate
Unhedged Gap
$7.5M
Potential hedge requirement
Market Participants
14
$11.5M capacity available
Market and Portfolio Risk Outlook
External market pricing compared with organisation-specific exposure and model estimates.
Historical Hazard Frequency
Indicative event observations across the preceding decade.
Tradable Hedge Opportunities
Contracts currently available to offset or absorb the selected risk.
AI Risk and Market Brief
Queensland Heatwave risk is rising
The wider market implies a probability of 18.2%, while the current Theori model estimate is 21.6%.
The model-market difference is 3.4 percentage points. Your organisation currently has $18.5M of related exposure and an estimated unhedged gap of $7.5M.
Suggested action
Compare available protection capacity with current hedge requirements before increasing regional concentration.
Regional Market and Exposure View
Compare external market conditions with your current exposure.
| Region | Hazard | Risk Score | Market Probability | Your Exposure | Hedge Gap | Market Capacity | Trend | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Queensland | Heatwave | 91 | 18.2% | $18.5M | $7.5M | $11.5M | Rising | Critical |
| Western Australia | Cyclone | 82 | 11.2% | $12M | $4.2M | $18.6M | Rising | Elevated |
| New South Wales | Wind Drought | 74 | 13.6% | $16M | $3.1M | $8.4M | Stable | Elevated |
| Victoria | Solar Deficit | 63 | 15.8% | $10.5M | $2.4M | $9.3M | Falling | Watch |
| South Australia | Grid Outage | 55 | 9.4% | $8M | $1.6M | $14.3M | Stable | Watch |
| Tasmania | Rainfall Deficit | 37 | 14.7% | $6.5M | $900K | $10.2M | Falling | Normal |