Implied Probability
16.8%
Historical 15.1%
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JW
Market prices, positions, participants and transactions are simulated for demonstration purposes.
WaterCaliforniaTHEORI-WTR-US-CA-SD27
California Hydro & Snowpack Deficit
Protection against materially below-normal Sierra Nevada snowpack and associated hydroelectric inflow risk.
Bid
9.0%
Provide capacity
Ask
9.6%
Buy protection
Spread
0.6 pts
Indicative market
Available Capacity
$12.8M
$46M listed
Maturity
15 Apr 2027
1 November 2026 – 1 April 2027
Market Spread
0.6 pts
Indicative bid–ask
Indicative Market History
Illustrative pricing movement over the preceding six weeks.
Current indicative yield
9.6%
Range 8.4%–10.2%
01 Jul25 Jul14 Aug
Simulated Order Book
Indicative capacity available by premium rate.
RateCapacity
10.4%$2.7M
10.2%$2.2M
10.0%$1.7M
9.8%$1.3M
9.6%$800K
Indicative spread0.6 pts
9.0%$950K
8.8%$1.4M
8.6%$1.9M
8.4%$2.3M
8.2%$2.9M
Recent Market Activity
Simulated transactions for demonstration.
| Time | Direction | Notional | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12:24:18 | Protection | $750K | 9.6% |
| 12:18:42 | Capacity | $1.2M | 9.0% |
| 12:07:11 | Protection | $500K | 9.5% |
| 11:56:35 | Capacity | $2M | 8.9% |
| 11:43:08 | Protection | $900K | 9.6% |
Related Markets
Comparable exposures within the current market or region.
Contract Timeline
Market Open
Indicative trading
Observation
1 November 2026 – 1 April 2027
Verification
Independent snowpack, hydrology and reservoir observation data
Settlement
15 Apr 2027