Implied Probability
14.9%
Historical 13.1%
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Market prices, positions, participants and transactions are simulated for demonstration purposes.
Protection against an extreme winter demand event driven by prolonged low temperatures across the Northeast United States.
Bid
10.2%
Provide capacity
Ask
10.9%
Buy protection
Spread
0.7 pts
Indicative market
Implied Probability
14.9%
Historical 13.1%
Available Capacity
$15.7M
$53M listed
Maturity
28 Feb 2027
1 December 2026 – 28 February 2027
Market Spread
0.7 pts
Indicative bid–ask
Illustrative pricing movement over the preceding six weeks.
Current indicative yield
10.9%
Range 9.7%–11.5%
Indicative capacity available by premium rate.
Simulated transactions for demonstration.
| Time | Direction | Notional | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12:24:18 | Protection | $750K | 10.9% |
| 12:18:42 | Capacity | $1.2M | 10.2% |
| 12:07:11 | Protection | $500K | 10.8% |
| 11:56:35 | Capacity | $2M | 10.1% |
| 11:43:08 | Protection | $900K | 10.9% |
Comparable exposures within the current market or region.
Market Open
Indicative trading
Observation
1 December 2026 – 28 February 2027
Verification
Independent weather and regional electricity-demand data
Settlement
28 Feb 2027