Victorian Solar Output Protection

Protection against irradiance-adjusted solar generation materially underperforming forecast output.

EnergyVictoriaOpen

Indicative Yield

9.2%

Bid 8.8% · Ask 9.2%

Implied Probability

15.8%

Historical frequency 13.2%

Total Notional

$35M

$9.3M available

Maturity

31 Dec 2026

1 October 2026 – 31 December 2026

Contract Definition

Objective terms governing observation and settlement.

Trigger

Portfolio output falls below 85% of irradiance-adjusted forecast generation during the observation period.

Geographic Scope

Victoria

Observation Period

1 October 2026 – 31 December 2026

Data Source

Independent generation telemetry and satellite-derived irradiance data

Indicative Market History

Illustrative yield and probability movements.

Historical pricing chart workstream pending

Settlement

Cash settlement according to the documented shortfall payout schedule.

AI Risk Brief

Current pricing reflects elevated seasonal uncertainty

The current indicative premium is above the historical event frequency, reflecting recent forecast conditions, elevated energy-market sensitivity and constrained available capacity.